Climate change research, which now concentrates on temperature fluctuations, should shift its focus to rainfall patterns, a UA hydrology and water resources professor said.

Professor W. James Shuttleworth asserts this point in "The Challenges of Developing a Changing World," an article in this month's publication of Earth Observatory System. The American Geophysical Union produces the publication, Shuttleworth said in an int erview via electronic mail last week.

"The most critical need is to investigate whether global warming will cause changes in regional precipitation. Significant change ... in the variability of precipitation and the frequency of extreme events will directly affect development planning," Shutt leworth's article states.

According to a University of Arizona press release, "a couple of degrees change either way will not have much effect on development and management of agricultural systems, dams, roadways, or any of a hundred other things that concern humans."

However, changes in rainfall patterns, resulting in extreme storms and droughts, can have an enormous effect on human activities and structures, the press release said.

For example, the designer of a new roadway is more concerned with the severity of rainstorms than he is with the possibility of the average temperature of an area increasing from 54 degrees to 56 degrees during the next few decades.

"Emphasis should be on predicting rainfall for North America, particularly summer rainfall. Both summer and winter rainfall affect water resources and generate floods, but summer rainfall also influences agricultural production and drought," Shuttleworth said in his article.

"Global change is manageable," his article states. Nevertheless, "we obviously need to do what we can to moderate the rate of climate change by taking sensible action, like choosing to use alternatives to CFCs and increasing the efficiency with which we b urn fossil fuels (coals, oil, natural gas)," he said.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program's site on the World Wide Web says, "Global change research is a critical investment for the future of this nation, its economy, and the health and safety of its citizens."

As a member of the U.S. Global Change Research Committee, Shuttleworth is part of a review body for the USGCRP. The committee, made up of "individual, independent scientists," reports to the government, he said.

"USGCRP is really just a coordinating body between the big science funding agencies, such as NASA, NSF, etc. It tries to guide the overall program of research in the United States related to climate change, and to make sure that there is minimum duplicati on of research effort between funding agencies," Shuttleworth said.

"The USGCRP was created as a Presidential Initiative in 1989 and formalized in 1990 by the Global Change Research Act of 1990. (It) is an integrated effort of various agencies and organizations of the federal government," the Web site states.

In order for the U.S. Global Climate Research Program's work to remain consistent with its goal, a research shift is necessary, Shuttleworth said in his article.

"A primary goal of the USGCRP is to provide reliable predictions of future climate changes and their effects," the Web site states.

Shuttleworth estimated that he has had more than 70 papers published in scientific journals.

"I joined the faculty at the UA in 1993 from the Institute of Hydrology in the UK, where I had been Head of the Hydrological Processes Division. The UA has become well known as a center of excellence in hydrometeorological research over the last five year s, and last year the Department of Hydrology was rated the number one school in hydrology in the nation," he said.

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