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1950s devastating drought helps climatologists predict the future

In the 1950s, the United States was concentrating much of its efforts abroad to assist in the Korean conflict.

While the U.S. government was looking beyond its borders, a major problem was developing at home.

A crippling drought plagued the desert Southwest, bringing the region to its knees.

The drought of the 1950s was the worst dry spell in the Southwest since the late 1500s, according to tree-ring records.

In May of 1955, the Salt River, near Phoenix, recorded a runoff of 12,600 acre-feet - only 12 percent of normal - according to an April 1955 U.S. Geological Survey report.

That same report stated the San Carlos Indian Reservation reservoir, near Safford, had a runoff of only 3,900 acre-feet, which eliminated the water's use for practical irrigation purposes.

Now UA researchers are using data from the 10-year drought to determine the impact of such an event on Arizona in the 21st Century.

"The consequences could be as severe as the 1950s drought," said Barbara Morehouse of University of Arizona's Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest.

Morehouse and fellow researchers are completing a study of the effects of a severe drought - similar to the 1950s event - on Tucson and Phoenix's water supply.

Based on a 10-year projection, Morehouse and her team found that Tucson's groundwater supply could be overdrawn by as much as 15 percent by 2025, if researchers' predictions of long-term La NiÛa conditions plaguing the Southwest prove correct.

Researchers from NASA recently released satellite images which show a shift occurring in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation - the altering of climate patterns due to the warming and cooling of Pacific Ocean waters.

Scientists estimate the climate pattern last shifted in 1995, meaning dry conditions could hamper the Southwest for as long as 30 years.

If the Southwest experienced a drought as severe as the one 50 years ago, there could be major problems, according to Mitch Basefsky, a spokesman for Tucson Water.

"Tucson Water generally pumps 90 to 100 million gallons of water per day," Basefsky said. "If demand reaches the maximum, we could be pumping as much as 148 million gallons per day."

He added that if demand decreases well levels enough, Tucson Water would enact its Emergency Conservation Ordinance.

Reservoirs would have to be depleted 30 percent or more before the ordinance would take effect.

"At that point we would ask mayor and council to enact emergency measures," he added.

The ordinance would eliminate water use for car washing, swimming pools, and some irrigation, according to Basefsky.

But Tucson would not be as affected as the Phoenix metropolitan area, according to Fernando Molina, Tucson Water's conservation program manager.

"Phoenix is much more reliant on surface water than Tucson," he added. "Tucson has groundwater resources that would leave us better off."

Molina pointed out that Tucson already conserves water.

"Unlike other Southwest metroplexes, Tucson's water use is very low."

Tucsonans use about 158 gallons per person per day, while Las Vegas residents use around 300 gallons each day, Basefsky said.

"This can be attributed to a conservation ethic across the city," he added. "We reward people for low water usage."

Basefsky said Phoenicians are more apt to have grass lawns in the front of their house than Tucsonans.

"Just look at the great extent of desert landscaping here in Tucson," he said.

In November, Tucson voters defeated a measure that would have eliminated Central Arizona Project water from being used for human consumption.

Tucson can continue to draw on groundwater and CAP water as sources.

Morehouse said that if the measure had passed, water supplies would have been negatively impacted, making the drought impact worse.