Howard Dean's push for the Democratic presidential nomination looked like a Cinderella story ÷ told in reverse. Groomed and shaped from the get-go to be the leading Democratic candidate, Howard Dean practically had the nomination in his hand.
However, last month's Iowa caucus served as the sobering stroke of midnight and has all but dashed dreams of manufacturing little Dean for President buttons and the matching bumper stickers that go along with them. This new paradigm in the Democratic races placed John Kerry as the new front-runner, leaving Howard Dean to choke on his dust.
So, how did the Ketchup Kid manage to pull off this upset? What happened to the fire and passion of the Deaniacs? More importantly, how did Howard Dean lose out on such a sure thing?
The easiest thing to do is blame the media and their coverage of the introductory Iowa caucuses. The considerable hype surrounding Iowa, based solely on its being the kickoff event toward the Democratic nomination, created an unbalanced take on the situation.
Consider the following: Iowa only carries a paltry 44 delegates, an ineffectual portion when you take into account that 2,161 delegates are required for nomination. Despite its insignificance in number, it has prematurely created a complete reversal of fortune. The unrelenting coverage from that event created a snowball effect, with the advantage clearly in Kerry's favor.
But the results from the Iowa caucuses aren't the only thing that have damaged Dean's bid for the nomination. The continued nay-saying of the press has also delivered irreparable blows to Dean's viability as a candidate, though such a doom and gloom attitude is not warranted.
However, going strictly by the numbers, the race is far from over. True, Kerry has won an overwhelming amount of states in contrast to his rivals. Yet, according to Associated Press analyses, there are still more than 3,000 delegates to be won nationwide. As of now, Kerry leads with a total of 577 while Dean trails behind with 188, with an additional 40 delegates from Saturday still yet to be divided among the candidates.
Truly, the mass media's coverage has been vastly irresponsible in presenting information to the American public. Rather than take a more levelheaded approach, the press has sensationalized results, effectively declaring Kerry the presidential nominee when more than half of the delegates have yet to be won.
The resulting aftermath from the press's coverage has resulted in a climate of resignation and compromise. More and more, it seems people are switching allegiance from Dean to Kerry not out of free will, but because of the emerging ABB mentality, i.e. "anybody but Bush." That mentality and the desired end, though agreeable to some Americans, runs counter to the very essence of the democratic process.
The dissatisfaction of some Americans with President Bush's performance is causing them to choose their candidate not out of choice but out of fear. Out of fear, Americans are supporting the more electable Kerry. By that token, it mocks everything that a democracy is supposed to accomplish. Rather than voting for someone based on compatible ideology, it seems like voters are now making Kerry the front-runner for fear of allowing Bush Jr. a second term in the White House.
However, a free and true democracy finds its legitimacy in personal liberty and in exercising choice. If we Americans allow ourselves to compromise our freedom of choice, then we are no better than the tyrannical governments we have claimed to be the opposite of in every way.
Though it's not impossible for Dean to win the nomination, it's highly improbable he will come out victorious. Not only will Dean have to overcome the overwhelmingly gloomy and negative predictions by the press; he will have to combat the defeatist and fickle attitude of his own camp.
The upcoming Wednesday primaries in Wisconsin will prove to be Howard Dean's last stand. All eyes will be on Wisconsin as many political scientists see this as the last shot anyone has at stopping the juggernaut that is the Kerry campaign.
On Wednesday, voters in Wisconsin will be given the opportunity to show whether they are ruled by their own free will or by fear.
Susan Bonicillo is a journalism sophomore and thinks Dean turns a delightful shade of purple when he screams. She can be letters@wildcat.arizona.edu.