'Moneyball' explains Cats' success


By Michael Schwartz
Arizona Daily Wildcat
Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Once upon a time college and professional baseball teams looked for the prototypical baseball player, a guy who could run, throw, catch and look good in a baseball uniform.

Then came Michael Lewis' "Moneyball" and its theory about the way the Oakland Athletics and General Manager Billy Beane look at baseball that changed the face of the game at all levels.

The crux of the formula comes from looking at inefficiencies in the baseball market, using numbers spewed out of a computer instead of physical skills to determine the worth of a baseball player.

This theory, now called the Moneyball theory and practiced by many major league baseball teams, values on-base percentage and slugging percentage in hitters who do not strike out much and draw a good number of walks.

Hitters who walk more than they strike out possess plate discipline that will make them successful hitters at the higher levels of baseball, while conserving outs and making productive plate appearances make the other numbers a priority.

It also looks for pitchers with a good strikeout to walk ratio because the less times a batter puts the ball in play the less chance for his fielders to commit an error.

While No. 6 Arizona baseball head coach Andy Lopez said he considers himself an old-school manager - the type of coach who relies on his gut over statistical analysis - he has read the novel twice.

"I hope I'm open-minded enough to see when things need to be changed, they get changed," he said. "I still like kind of going out and watching what a guy can do on the field and not purely look at numbers, but I understand it, and I don't disagree with it."

While Lopez said that his team does not directly follow the Moneyball theory, the essence of it has led the squad to a Pacific 10 Conference-leading nine runs per game.

"We really stress two things offensively, and that's runs scored and RBIs because they both equate to something going up on the scoreboard if you score a run or drive a run in," Lopez said.

The Wildcats lead the conference in key Moneyball statistics slugging percentage, on-base percentage and walks.

"Obviously you can't do that unless you get on base," Lopez said. "We don't talk about on-base percentage all that much, but we talk about driving runs in and scoring runs, so one leads to the other, and obviously the main one is you've got to get on base to do it."

If the A's, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and other Moneyball teams were to keep an eye on Arizona prospects, they should focus on junior left fielder Trevor Crowe.

Crowe leads the conference in slugging percentage at .714, runs scored with 50, total bases with 110, ranks fourth in on-base percentage at .497 and has walked 24 times, sixth in the conference. He leads the team in all those categories except walks.

Junior catcher Nick Hundley ranks right behind Crowe as a Moneyball player.

Hundley is tied for second in the conference with a .703 slugging percentage, stands sixth in on-base percentage at .478 and leads the team and ranks second in the conference with 29 walks.

In putting up these impressive numbers, Hundley exhibits the Moneyball trait of working deep into the count.

"I like to see pitches," he said. "I'm not concerned when I go deep in the count. Being able to walk is something I've really tried to do as one of my goals coming into the season was having more walks than strikeouts."

Having walked six more times than he has struck out, Hundley leads a patient offense in this category that has struck out only 19 more times than it has walked, a key contributor to the big numbers at the plate.

On the mound, the Moneyball theory identifies strikeouts as a major contributor to success because the more plays a defense has to make, the more mistakes they will make. Walks are also important since they make it easy for the opposition to get on base.

"Your fielding average usually goes up when you have a lot of strikeouts because there's less opportunity to make an error, but I'm happy with that," Lopez said. "Our walks are down and our strikeouts are up in terms of pitching, and so you can't complain too much about that."

Arizona leads the conference in strikeouts with 345, averaging 10.2 per game.

That puts the Wildcats on pace to strike out a new school record 568 batters. The current team record stands at 540 tied in 1956 and 1963.

The team struck out only 432 batters all of last year and came closest to breaking the record in 2000 with 491 punchouts.

Arizona boasts a high strikeout one-two punch with junior Kevin Guyette, who leads the conference with 86 strikeouts, and junior John Meloan, who ranks third with 75.

In 69.2 innings, Guyette has already thrown more strikeouts than last year, when he threw 83 in 118.2 innings, while Meloan only threw 77 in 92.2 innings in 2004, but this year he stands two behind in 58 innings.

"The wins are the most important," Guyette said. "Strikeouts are just an added bonus, and I don't think of them at all. It's nice to have an out pitch this year. That's what I didn't have last year, and I do have this year, but it's really not a big deal to me at all."

While Guyette values wins over strikeouts, the Moneyball theory says that the strikeouts have directly led to his increased victory output, as Guyette (6-2) has already equaled his wins from last season.

His control around the plate, having walked only 17 batters, has also played a major role in his success. Without a blazing fastball, this impressive control will be what raises Guyette's stock to major league teams.

"I'm not going to go out there and throw 95 miles per hour and be able to blow fastballs by people," Guyette said. "I do depend on throwing strikes and the little things in baseball that make a pitcher good, so hopefully that concept will apply, and I'll be successful doing it."

Even with an old-school manager, the Moneyball theory is at work in the Arizona lineup. With a team full of patient, productive hitters and a pitching staff striking batters out at a record pace, it's no wonder why the Wildcats have dominated conference play thus far.

If they keep it up, the Moneyball computers will dial up Tucson come major league draft day.