Researchers to create warning system for deadly mudslides

Arizona Daily Wildcat Photos courtesy of Disaster Relief Organization and The Sidney Morning Herald A young girl is rescued from the only house left standing after a mudslide ran through a small town in Wollongong, Australia. Professor Karl Glass and doctoral student Ray Klimmek are developing a computer model to link up with a satellite-based system to predict and warn people about mudslides.

Suddenly, a hillside is transformed into a raging torrent of mud and debris, sweeping away all in its path. Roads, homes, even entire towns can be crushed under the onslaught.

The United States Geological Survey estimates that mudslides cause up to 50 deaths per year and $2 billion in damage, but there remains no way to predict the natural catastrophes.

A University of Arizona professor and doctoral student set about to change that and developed a computer model to detect danger areas.

The system will also estimate the size and direction a mudflow is likely to take.

"We can indicate the areas where probability of slides is pretty high," said Karl Glass, a UA mining and geological engineering professor.

By looking at variables such as weather patterns, terrain and deforestation, Glass and doctoral student Ray Klimmek hope to produce "hazard maps" of threatened areas.

The computer model will be able to calculate the probability of mudslides, and how large they may be, Klimmek said.

It will also be able to predict how much damage they could do, he said.

Glass and Klimmek hope to have their computer model become part of the Geographic Information System, which links satellite observations and local data so communities can simulate the effect of natural events.

Their ultimate goal is to produce a "staged warning system," much like the Forest Service has ratings for the likelihood of forest fires, Glass said.

"We will never be able to know exactly where one of these things is going to occur," Glass said. "But we can certainly warn people out of the way."

Such a system could help prevent tragedies such as the mudslide on the slopes of the Casita volcano in Nicaragua that killed hundreds of people in 1998.

Another mudslide in Sarno, Italy, killed 135 people last year.

The Sarno disaster prompted the Italian government and NASA to offer a grant to scientists studying the causes and effects of mudslides.

Glass said he and Klimmek will find out this summer if they will receive part of that money.

Sean McLachlan can be reached at Sean.McLachlan@wildcat.arizona.edu.