Monday September 24, 2001

GENEVA - U.N. relief workers along Afghanistan's borders are bracing for an

exodus of hundreds of thousands of Afghan civilians if the United States begins a

military assault, the top U.N. refugee official said yesterday.

"We base our planning on a worst-case scenario, which would mean an additional flow of 1.5 million people going out of Afghanistan to Pakistan and Iran,'' U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Ruud Lubbers told The Associated Press.

The United States suspects alleged terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden of orchestrating the Sept. 11 attacks, and has threatened to punish Afghanistan's hard-line Taliban rulers for providing him sanctuary. Fearing strikes, Afghans - who are already suffering from famine and civil war - have begun to leave.

Pakistan and Iran, already overwhelmed by 3.5 million Afghan refugees over the past two decades, have closed their borders. Still, between 10,000 and 20,000 new refugees have managed to slip across the border by small roads and other remote paths, Lubbers said.

The two governments "understand the humanitarian situation" and are talking to UNHCR about temporary provisions for a massive outflow as long as it is confined to the border area, preferably on the Afghan side, he said.

U.N. officials also hope to persuade other countries to do more "burden sharing," the former Dutch prime minister said at his Geneva headquarters.

But not knowing where or how the United States might retaliate for the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon makes preparations for the outflow of refugees extremely difficult, Lubbers said.

He said he hoped any attacks will be kept proportional and "shaped in such a way that the humanitarian alliance is effective and we can provide what has to be provided."

UNHCR has made contingency plans to remove its staff from Pakistan and Iran as well in case of reprisals following any U.S. attacks.

Like other relief organizations, UNHCR has pulled all of its international staff out of Afghanistan and is trying to figure out how to help those too weak or too poor to flee.

"You cannot afford to leave the very poor in Afghanistan without assistance, basically food," Lubbers said. "We have to find ways and means in that situation."

Humanitarian donations from government have begun to come but much more will be needed, Lubbers said.

"I trust money will come," he said. "It's a bit shameful that you need an attack on America to produce generosity."