UA sees upward trend in retention numbers

Of 1997's incoming freshman class, 77 percent of students enrolled for a second year at the University of Arizona. During the past decade, the UA has drawn roughly 63 to 67 percent of students to a second year at the university.

"I am inclined to regard a dropout as an institutional failure," Likins said.

However, he added that many students who enroll at the UA for a short time still benefit and often return to school - either at a junior college or another university.

"It seems to me the university experience in a research university of this size and complexity magnifies enormously a student's capacity to succeed," Likins said. "A lot of that value comes from students' personal struggles in a challenging environment."

The UA's four-year graduation rate, available for the incoming class of 1994, reached 34 percent - which increased steadily from 18 percent in 1986.

Despite the upward trend, Likins said statistics indicating graduation and retention rates do not necessarily correlate with the university's individual performance.

U.S. News and World Report magazine reported a discrepancy between predicted and actual graduation rate - indicating the university is underperforming in educating students.

But Likins said because the UA has a predicted six-year graduation rate of 54 percent, and an actual rate is 52 percent, the marginal 2 percent "underperformance rate" is of little concern.

"It is absurd to imagine that U.S. News can predict graduation rates to such a precise figure," Likins said. "The difference is not statistically meaningful. U.S. News cannot make calculations with such precision."

Bill Korn, director of the Higher Education Research Institution at UCLA, called the comparison between the predicted and actual graduation rates of a university a "measure of how successful the school is in helping students through the program."

The UCLA institution developed a formula for predicting graduation and retention rates for colleges and universities, based on incoming freshmen characteristics like grade point average, SAT scores, gender and ethnicity.

"If the retention and graduation rates of a university are better than the predicted rates, the school has value," Korn said. "If the rates are lower than predicted, there is something going on at the institution that affects that."

But Likins said there are too many factors to precisely determine if a school is realizing its potential.

"Most students who drop out don't (do so) because they're not smart enough," Likins said. "It is a serious mistake to assume most students flunk out. In most cases, there are a myriad of personal considerations that overwhelm academic considerations.

"What they need to try and measure is the educational value added by the university," Likins added.

Since 1992, the mean high school GPA and SAT scores for incoming UA freshmen have increased each year, reaching a 3.32 for grades and 1106 for the standardized test.

Likins said after high school, the UA presents students with a learning environment, surrounded by competitive peers and a demanding work load.

"The university, in many ways, creates an environment in which students can have an enormously valuable learning experience," he said. "We probably add more value to a student's education, in that sense, than many elite universities."