Should we be panicking over Y2K?

Wildcat File Photo Arizona Daily Wildcat Rachel Alexander

But how much truth is there in these grim predictions?

The embedded chips in question are found only in systems with a date function, such as VCRs, certain industrial equipment, and mainframes. Of these, only 5 percent are expected to fail, according to a study in the Economist by the Giga Information Group, a Massachusetts consulting firm. Furthermore, "failing" generally means the date function will stop. The VCR 12:00 light will flash, but the appliance will continue to function.

Dick Mills, who has developed software for power companies for 30 years, and is currently working on Y2K compliance issues with them, states that Y2K is not "critical" for power companies, since the power will still flow manually even if the date function is not working. He gives the example of one power company that always shuts down its computer system during the first night of daylight savings in order to avoid date and time problems. The company has had no disruption of power.

Tom Browne, head of the Y2K project for the Air Transport Association - which represents 27 airlines and shipping companies - states that Y2K will not affect airplanes once they are in the air, but may affect scheduling and take-off times. Federal Aeronautics Administration official Jane Garvey has told the House Appropriations Transportation Subcommittee that the FAA will be compliant by June 1999.

Raymond Long, the FAA's director of airway services, is so confident there will not be any problems with his agency and Y2K that he is planning to fly cross-country at midnight on Dec. 31, 1999.

The Social Security Administration has announced that it is already Y2K compliant, fully one year ahead of schedule. Many more companies and agencies have already resolved this problem. A friend of mine who works for a naval torpedo station in Washington state reports that he has already fixed and successfully tested their Y2K problem, finding it a relatively easy problem to correct.

Y2K date turnovers have already started, because some programs rolled over on Jan. 1, 1999; however, the few occurrences of noncompliance went by unnoticed because they were easily resolved. USA Today reported an incident in Hong Kong where the harbormaster's computers froze up. There were no accidents, and the system was fixed within a few hours.

The Gartner Group, an information technology consulting group that has done research on Y2K, predicts that 90 percent of the systems that do fail will be corrected within three days. Most electronic equipment such as VCRs will simply need to be reset come Jan. 1, 2000.

New York State's fiscal year will begin on April 1, 1999, resulting in premature Y2K occurrences there. If reflective of earlier incidents, these upcoming Y2K glitches will prove relatively uneventful.

Meanwhile, doomsdayers like Gary North are making huge amounts of money selling their "helpful" books to willing consumers. North has been criticized for countless misrepresentations and inconsistencies, such as not understanding the difference between "compliant" and "operating." His background is in history, not computers or engineering. Perhaps it would be better to consult technical experts on the impact of Y2K. C-net, a hi-tech e-zine on the web, reports that, "nobody who's actually working on the millennium bug expects anything near the apocalyptic scenarios put forth by the doomsayers."

Unfortunately, there will be many people who will panic the last few days before the year 2000. Many of these people will be stockholders, who may pull out large sums of money, causing a market downturn. Consequently, this year may be a good year to reinvest in Y2K compliant companies and "safe" companies such as power and gas. Ironically, panicking over Y2K will probably cause more disruption than Y2K itself.