Matt Gray Columnist

Odds are, you'll probably start thinking about retiring around 2042. Unfortunately, that happens to be the same time Social Security is set to go bankrupt. In an effort to avoid that, this week the president began aggressively promoting his plan to overhaul Social Security, highlighted by the effort to create private investment accounts.

Simplified greatly, Social Security works as follows: When young people get paid for working, some of their earnings are withdrawn and given to the Social Security program. Then, when those workers reach a certain age, they stop working and giving money, and instead retire and start receiving money. If there are enough people working to support the people that are retired, the system works well. However, while there were 42 workers for every retiree when the system began, today there are only about three workers for every retiree. As a result, the Social Security Administration predicts that the program will start giving out more money than it takes in by 2018 and will run out completely by 2042.

This brings us back to the new discussion about how to fix the situation. The centerpiece of the president's plan involves directing some of the current workers' money into personal accounts instead of the larger Social Security fund. Workers would invest this money in order to increase its value, much like a 401(k) retirement plan. The president believes that the extra money workers would gain from those investments is the key factor in the Social Security debate. He argues that those extra earnings could provide a long-term solution.

The president deserves credit for taking on Social Security reform. He could just as easily have avoided this politically tricky issue, but chose not to. That said, the president's plan for privatization isn't the best way to go about reforming the system for two reasons: 1. It will cost a fortune in the short term, and 2. There are better options to protect the system in the long term. The switch to private accounts would be expensive in the short term because directing some of younger workers' money away from the Social Security fund would leave even less money to pay current and imminent retirees. Many economists estimate that between setting up the new system and paying the difference to older workers without private accounts, the transition could cost up to $2 trillion.

That might be worth it if it the change was guaranteed to work, but it isn't. Anyone who has invested in the stock market knows that you can never be certain that you're going to make money. There's a possibility that people would earn enough money to ease the burden on Social Security, but there's also the possibility that people would lose money and require even more funding from the government.

In addition, even if the stock market is the right place to turn for a solution for Social Security, there is still a better option. Instead of undertaking a costly transition to private accounts, allow the government to invest the money directly. This option opens up the possible benefits of investing without the costs of setting up a new system.

Of course, government investment is not a perfect solution. Many, including Alan Greenspan, worry that pouring Social Security money into stocks could lead to the government exerting undue influence on the free market. This is not a hollow concern, but it doesn't seem nearly as daunting as the cost of private accounts. It might be difficult to set up a truly impartial government investment system, but it would not be impossible. You could have a system with 18 layers of checks and balances, and it still would not be nearly as complicated or expensive as overseeing millions of private investors.

In the end, economists are divided on the best way to handle social security. However, the drive toward privatization is based more on politics than economics. There might be some benefit to furthering a "culture of ownership" as the president suggests, but that benefit certainly isn't worth the trillion-dollar price tag.

Matt Gray is a second-year law student. He can be reached at letters@wildcat.arizona.edu.