By
Maya Schechter
Arizona Daily Wildcat
Their research shows amount of Buchanan votes unlikely
Texas Gov. George Bush may seem to be ahead in the race for the White House, but a UA professor says this could be true only because of a ballet error in one Florida precinct.
Bush led Vice President Al Gore last night by less than 300 votes after a recount in 66 of 67 Florida counties. Election officials will not finish the recount in West Palm Beach, Fla. until Saturday and could be as late as Tuesday, the Associated Press reported.
Florida's 25 electoral votes are needed for either candidate to win the election.
Gary Schwartz, professor of psychology, medicine, neurology, and psychiatry at the University of Arizona, said that after analyzing voting statistics reported for the 67 precincts in Florida, he concluded that many of the votes for Pat Buchanan should have gone towards Gore.
The total number of Buchanan votes in West Palm Beach, Fla. is 3,407. That number of votes is 1,000 percent greater than the average number of votes for Buchanan - 259 - for the other 67 counties, Schwartz said.
The analysis shows that while the votes for Nader were significantly higher in counties favoring Gore compared to counties favoring Bush, the votes for Buchanan were barely affected by a preference for Gore or Bush, he said.
Schwartz said he watched CNN on Wednesday evening, which reported that hundreds of West Palm Beach voters said they were confused with the "butterfly ballot" structure and may have accidentally voted for Buchanan.
"I'm not an expert in politics, but as a psychology professor, I can say that those people were in fact confused," Schwartz said.
He also said that a large population of West Palm Beach are older, Jewish residents, and it seemed unusual that they would vote for Buchanan.
"Will Bush choose to claim victory knowing that it is probable that he won the election due to a mistake in the voting intentions of senior citizens caused by faulty voting ballets?" Schwartz said.
After analyzing the actual data and carefully using statistical methods routinely he employed in psychological research, Schwartz said he met with Lee Sechrest, a UA professor of psychology, to report on their findings.
"It is incredibly unfortunate that this has happened," Sechrest said.
Schwartz said although it's the responsibility of people to vote carefully and take responsibility for their mistakes, when a mistake of this magnitude is discovered, it should not be dismissed.
"It is obviously a mess, we don't see any way out of it, all we can do is point out the facts but the decision has to be made at a higher level," Sechrest added.
Schwartz said that speaking as a citizen and a scientist, he believes the best choice to make is to have a run-off election because the results are so close.
"It's a scientific question, not a political one," Schwartz said. "We just don't want to see these kind of mistakes happen again in the future."
Schwartz said the reactions from both candidates was expected - that Bush supporters will be tempted to ignore or dismiss these concerns, and Gore supporters will be tempted to exploit them, Schwartz said.
Schwartz also said that he most relates with the Independent Party, and that he wouldn't allow personal wishes to intervene with his research.
"We shouldn't allow our political values to interfere with our common values for the country as a whole - that is the values system I am trying to encourage," he said.
"If Bush and Gore wish to avoid hypocrisy and lead the country with integrity, they will have to address the challenge raised by this surprising human error," Schwartz and Sechrest said in their report. "If the Republicans and Democrats wish to correct the mistakes of Nixon and Clinton, they will have to address these data with humility and wisdom."
