Shane Dale

Congratulations, Janet.* At 6:04 p.m. last night, Attorney General Napolitano was declared the winner of Arizona's gubernatorial election by The Associated Press.

It would seem that she's pulled this one out. And while I didn't vote for her, I'll be among the first to congratulate Attorney General Napolitano on her victory. But that time may not have come just yet.

Election staffers say there are still around 220,000 ballots to be tabulated, and 180,000 of them come from Republican-stronghold Maricopa County.

Looking at the current returns, it would seem that Napolitano has little to worry about. With all 2,084 Arizona precincts reporting, she had a 25,000 vote lead ÷ and at that point, Salmon had only carried Maricopa by 10,000.

But Salmon still has reason to be cautiously hopeful. Here are some reasons why:

· Roughly two-thirds of early ballot requests were made by Republicans. Yes, Maricopa County is Republican-leaning, but it isn't that Republican leaning.

· The nearly 200,000 ballots to be counted in Maricopa were returned very recently ÷ as late as 7 p.m. Tuesday night. Why is this important? Salmon has been gaining in the polls since the last week of October.

· Last week's Rocky Mountain Poll had Salmon ahead by four points in Maricopa County. Currently, Salmon's lead in the county is only two points, suggesting that the remaining ballots will expand his lead in Maricopa significantly. And incidentally, that same poll had Salmon up by one point overall.

· Salmon supporters had been working the phones frantically over the past week, calling up Republicans who had requested early ballots, and urging them to send them in. The fact that there are so many uncounted ballots in Maricopa suggests that they were extraordinarily successful.

· The ballots of my sister and her husband, both Salmon voters, are among those yet to be counted. Those two votes alone trim Napolitano's lead by .00008 percent. Be afraid, Janet.

While an estimated 65-70 percent of those uncounted ballots belong to voters from his party, Salmon doesn't need that many returned in his favor to pull this election out. About 55 percent will do it.

Salmon told his supporters Tuesday night that they'll be calling him "governor-elect" in a few days. Even as a Salmon supporter, I wouldn't be that ambitious.

If either Salmon overtakes Napolitano or Napolitano continues to lead by the end of the week, the margin of victory will likely be within 10,000 votes.

In that case, under Arizona law, there is an automatic recount.

Remember when recounts were just for small, local offices that no one cared about, and not for bigger races like, you know, president and governor?

So there will probably be a machine recount. And it'll get closer. Then there will be a recount by hand. And if we're really lucky, the grand total margin will be within a thousand votes. Then the lawsuits begin.

In other words, it could be weeks, not days, before we know who will occupy the governor's chair come January. Hell, we might not even know by then.

OK, that may be stretching it a little. All I'm saying is this: Be prepared. Be very prepared. This could take a while.

In the meantime, both candidates have cause to be optimistic, and both certainly are. And if I absolutely, positively had to place a bet on who will take this race, I'd reluctantly give the nod to Janet.

Fortunately, I'm not a betting man.

In the wee small hours of Wednesday morning, Napolitano said that, in regard to a possible Salmon comeback, "He doesn't need a tide, he needs a tidal wave at this point."

A tidal wave is what might be coming.

I'll tell you, every once in a while, that lame "It ain't over 'til it's over" clichˇ becomes relevant again.

But for now: Congratulations, governor-elect Napolitano, on your narrow but well-deserved victory.*